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☆ Softer inflation could hide a hard landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. economy is coming in for landing. Inflation is easing even as growth looks strong, but Americans are bracing for new financial pain. The year-over-year rate of price increases stood at 3.2% in October, barely above the Federal Reserve’s goal, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. Inflation expectations rose to 4.2% in October from 3.2% the month prior, according to the University of Michigan. Even as McDonald’s (MCD.N) beat profit estimates on Oct. 30, boss Christopher Kempczinski flagged that lower-income consumers are pulling back.

Persons: aren’t, Christopher Kempczinski, Ben Winck, taints, Cameron, Jonathan Guilford, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Federal, of Labor Statistics, CME Group, University of Michigan, X, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Biden’s economic scorecard touts fragile advantage
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

And if the political strategist James Carville was right that “it’s the economy, stupid,” the next several months could make or break Joe Biden’s economic record. As things stand, the current ruler of the free world touts a fragile advantage. Households’ disposable income after adjusting for inflation hit a record $20 trillion in the month that Biden’s measure was approved, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. STUDENT LOANSForgiving swaths of student debt was another of Biden’s campaign promises, but his efforts have so far failed. And with higher interest rates making debt service more expensive, Biden’s spending could come back to bite him on election day.

Persons: Joe Biden, Ken Cedeno, James Carville, Joe Biden’s, “, aren’t, Breakingviews, it’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, ”, Realtor.com, Congressional Republicans haven’t, haven’t, WALL, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Edmond's Catholic, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, House, Republican, AMERICAN, ACT, Brookings Institution, Analysis, Walmart, Nordstrom, Deere, Caterpillar, Republicans, Commerce Department, Micron, Bank of America, Gallup, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, RSM, Congressional Republicans, Biden, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conservative, Thomson Locations: St, Rehoboth Beach , Delaware, U.S, New York, Arizona, West Virginia

☆ SEC may have to let crypto foxes into the henhouse
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has cracked down on crypto exchanges without defining most tokens, stoking criticism that it has fostered a regulatory grey area and depressed prices. But now the agency is struggling to hire the experts it needs to keep policing the sector, partly because crypto lovers don’t want to sell their coins at depressed prices. Hiring such specialists is “critical” to probing new problems in crypto markets, the inspector general wrote. Yet supporters of bitcoin and the like have long criticized the SEC for regulating through enforcement instead of setting clear guidelines. For the SEC to do its job as best it can, it might need to replace its bad-cop routine with some good-cop action.

Persons: Ben Winck, Aston Martin, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, bitcoin, SEC, X, Paramount, Macquarie, Thomson

☆ Starbucks pays little mind to unions’ pay push
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People gather outside a Starbucks location while singer Billy Bragg performs for striking Starbucks Workers United Union members in Buffalo, New York, U.S., October 12, 2022. Under Starbucks’ new wage plan announced Monday morning, only baristas with more than five years of experience will win 5% raises. All other employees will come in below the 4.1% jump in average hourly pay over the last 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Part-time workers at United Parcel Service (UPS.N) won a 48% average pay hike over five years, akin to a 10% annual increase. While U.S. baristas continue to organize, contracts approved at two Canadian Starbucks stores suggests employees’ bargaining power is fizzling.

Persons: Billy Bragg, Lindsay DeDario, Ben Winck, Aston Martin, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Starbucks Workers United Union, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Starbucks, Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, United Parcel Service, X, Paramount, Macquarie, Pfizer, Thomson Locations: Buffalo , New York, U.S

☆ Bezos makes third losing bet on real estate
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It’s not the only questionable real estate decision Bezos has made in the past several years. He announced in a Thursday Instagram post that he will move to Miami, leaving the Washington city where he founded Amazon in 1994. Bezos grew up in the south-Florida city in the early 1980s, and he will return to a two-mansion compound worth some $147 million, according to Bloomberg. Miami-based real estate had a renaissance during the pandemic as people sought warmer climates where they could be outside. Still, the founder is no stranger to real estate bets that don’t always make financial sense.

Persons: Jeff Bezos, It’s, Bezos, Ken Griffin, David Tepper, lockdowns, That’ll, don’t, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Amazon, Bloomberg, U.S . Federal Housing Finance Agency, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dade, University of Miami, Homes, Climate, U.S . Federal Aviation Administration, Shepard, Thomson Locations: Miami, Seattle, Florida, Washington, Bezos, Indian, Arlington , Virginia, Arlington, Cape Canaveral

☆ Uncle Sam provides shaky base for Caterpillar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The $500 billion U.S. infrastructure spending bill, passed in late 2021, helped lift the firm’s third-quarter profit 41% from a year ago. As with other sharp pullbacks after government-supported pandemic spending, Caterpillar will prove that counting on federal aid isn’t a viable business model. And the construction firms that order from Caterpillar appeared to step back, with the company's backlog of deliveries falling $2.6 billion in the third quarter. The U.S. CHIPS Act set aside $39 billion to help build semiconductor factories, leaving more money for construction firms and, in turn, Caterpillar. Umpleby may be benefitting from Uncle Sam now, but before long Caterpillar will have to fend for itself.

Persons: Michaela Rehle, James Umpleby, Joe Biden’s, EBITDA, Uncle Sam, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Construction Machinery, Machines, Mining Machines, Construction Vehicles, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Caterpillar, U.S . General Services Administration, Siemens, Cummins, LSEG, Thomson Locations: Munich, Germany, Texas, China, U.S

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about his administration's commitment to seizing the opportunities and managing the risks of Artificial Intelligence, in San Francisco, California, U.S., June 20, 2023. On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order establishing regulatory guardrails for the technology that looks set to upend humanity. The announcement closes some of the rulemaking gap between the United States and its international counterparts. But now, because of the lack of clarity, some firms are considering ditching the United States. If important technologies do move outside of the United States, the country effectively loses its chance to steer development.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Sam Altman, Andreessen Horowitz, Forrester, Ben Winck, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Artificial Intelligence, REUTERS, Reuters, European Union, Cyberspace Administration, OpenAI, Securities, Exchange Commission, Venture, country’s, Thomson Locations: San Francisco , California, U.S, United States, London

☆ Influencer model infects US political fundraising
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In turn, leaders like former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Republican Speaker Paul Ryan collected tens of millions of dollars to divert to politically valuable campaigns elsewhere in the party. Florida Republican Matt Gaetz has raised nearly $2 million this year, helped by fundraising emails sent in the lead-up to his successful effort to remove Republican Representative Kevin McCarthy as House speaker. Vocal conservatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert have raised $2.7 million and $2.4 million, respectively, for their 2024 House campaigns. McCarthy raised 2.9% of House Republicans’ cash in the 2022 elections. Republican Representative Garret Graves criticized Representative Matt Gaetz on Oct. 3 for using his vote to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as a fundraising opportunity.

Persons: Mike Johnson, Nathan Howard, –, Nancy Pelosi, Paul Ryan, Florida Republican Matt Gaetz, Kevin McCarthy, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, McCarthy, John Boehner, Taylor, Garret Graves, Matt Gaetz, Graves gestured, Gaetz, ” Gaetz, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Republican, U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Representatives, Democratic, Florida Republican, Republicans, U.S . House, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Florida, U.S

☆ US growth boom tees up year-end bust
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The latest report on the country's growth is worth celebrating, but not for too long. Household incomes after inflation and taxes fell by $71 billion in the third quarter, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. That shrank in the third quarter, with managers flagging peak interest rates as a larger concern, leaving less in the pipeline. Yet stores spent $81 billion in excess inventory last quarter and are likely to wait to restock shelves. Last quarter’s boom should give way to a bust.

Persons: Lee Jae, LSEG, Ben Winck, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Rights, Reuters, Macroeconomics, Savings, Companies, X, Unilever, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ P&G price hikes have no-tears effect on US wallets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Pampers, a brand owned by Procter & Gamble, is seen for sale in a store in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 29, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Acquire Licensing RightsWashington/NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If Americans are fed up with inflation, their checking accounts aren’t showing it. Procter & Gamble (PG.N) topped earnings expectations on Wednesday after raising prices 7% year-over-year in the third quarter. Imagine all producers of such goods raised prices by 7% in the past year, as P&G did. P&G credits innovation, and if it can squeeze where others can’t, it may even be able to raise prices more.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Forrester, Ben Winck, John Foley, Jean, Pierre Mustier, Atos, Larry Fink, Uncle Sam, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Procter & Gamble, REUTERS, Washington, Reuters, of America, PepsiCo, X, News Corp, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S

☆ Rainmakers find political hedge in Chris Christie
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Republican presidential candidate and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie speaks at the New Hampshire Republican Party’s First in the Nation Leadership Summit in Nashua, New Hampshire, U.S., October 13, 2023. Several hedge fund rainmakers poured cash into Chris Christie’s campaign over the summer, according to filings released on Monday. But with legal woes hanging over Trump’s campaign, contributions to the most anti-Trump conservative could become a valuable call option for the group that knows something about hedging. It’s notable that Christie has been vocal about attacking Trump, whom he advised during the prior president’s first term. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie raised $3.8 million over the quarter, aided by donations from wealthy investors including Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper and Paul Tudor Jones.

Persons: Chris Christie, Brian Snyder, Donald Trump, hasn’t, Wall, Chris Christie’s, Christie, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, That’s, Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper, Tudor Investment’s Paul Tudor Jones maxed, Seth Klarman, Bruce Kovner, Trump, ” Christie, Ramaswamy, Tyler Winklevoss, Paul Tudor Jones, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Republican, New, New Hampshire Republican Party’s, Nation Leadership Summit, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Republican Party, Trump, Duquesne Capital, Management, CAM, Fairleigh Dickinson University, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal, Former New Jersey, Thomson Locations: New Jersey, Nashua , New Hampshire, U.S

☆ Asymmetric pay policy keeps US prone to shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - U.S. legislators could use more skin in the shutdown game. Lawmakers will collect their salaries during the halt, however long it lasts, but nearly 1.5 million public workers will go without wages. The average salary for a federal employee was already 24% lower than the private-sector equivalent last year, wider than 2021’s gap, according to the Federal Salary Council. The $174,000 annual salaries paid to each of the 535 U.S. legislators, meantime, will be unaffected. Their median net worth is just over $1 million, according to the nonprofit research outfit OpenSecrets, so the paychecks are important to most of them.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Jonathan Ernst, Ben Winck, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Republican Party, Federal Salary Council, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Long US shutdown is avoidable but seems inevitable
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Their requests are so extreme that the measures stand no chance of passing in the Democratic-controlled Senate, which is required to avoid a shutdown. While it could be either avoidable or short-lived, a longer shuttering of the U.S. government seems inevitable. Both chambers of the U.S. legislative branch are making last-ditch efforts to dodge a shutdown before the Sunday deadline. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said on Sunday she opposes the budget’s $300 million charge for training Ukrainian troops – that amounts to 0.02% of the total $1.5 trillion budget. The last stoppage, which lasted a record seven weeks between 2018 and 2019, was only solved through compromise between House Democrats and Senate Republicans.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Donald Trump, McCarthy, Joe Biden, “, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Congress, U.S . House, Democratic, Republican, House Republicans, Justice Department, Internal, House Democrats, Senate, Republicans, Thomson Locations: U.S, Mexico, Ukraine

☆ Republicans leave Ukraine, weed, crypto in limbo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Legislative casualties of U.S. Congress’s budget fight are emerging. His caving to extreme members of the party augurs poorly for measures like Ukraine aid and cannabis banking. Republicans including Representative Matt Gaetz and Representative Andy Biggs have already denied calls for new Ukraine aid. By siding with further-right members, McCarthy gives them more power to hold the line.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Jonathan Ernst, Joe Biden, Biden, McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, Andy Biggs, Ben Winck, Bernie Sanders’s, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Republican, Wednesday, Banking, X, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Ukraine, Washington

☆ New economic rules shatter US bonds’ crystal ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Yield curve “inversions” belong to the latter group. At first sight, they are right: Yield curve inversions have been a consistent predictor of future downturns. Yield curve inversions take place when the yield on short-dated government debt climbs higher than that on longer-term bonds. Lower long-dated bond yields are seen as a sign that investors predict lower rates due to an economic downturn. As such, yield curve inversions have become a popular forward indicator of economic recessions.

Persons: Treasuries, There’s, Eugene F, Fama, Kenneth R, joblessness, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Morgan Stanley U.S, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Covid

☆ Deaths haunt Corporate America via labor strikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

United Auto Workers union President Shawn Fain joins UAW members who are on a strike, on the picket line at the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Michigan, U.S., September 15, 2023. Manufacturing plants in Wentzville, Missouri, Wayne, Michigan and Toledo, Ohio will be empty as Ford Motor (F.N), General Motors (GM.N), and Stellantis (STLAM.MI) try to reach an agreement with the United Auto Workers collective bargaining committee. Deaths among the demographic that make up the workforce in the transportation sector are partly putting pressure on the problem. Follow @BenWinck on XCONTEXT NEWSThe United Auto Workers union started simultaneous strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis on Sept. 15 after last-minute labor negotiations failed to result in a deal. Pilots organized with the Air Line Pilots Association rejected a tentative labor deal with Fedex on July 24.

Persons: Shawn Fain, Rebecca Cook, they’re, Alan Krueger, walkouts, it’s, “, Darren Hawkins, Sean O’Brien, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: United Auto Workers, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ford, General Motors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, White, Richmond Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, United Airlines, Sensible, Pilots, Air Line Pilots Association, Fedex, Delta Air Lines, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: Wayne , Michigan, U.S, Wentzville , Missouri, Toledo , Ohio

The Google sign is reflected in a rain puddle outside their offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., June 27, 2017. Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Want to know how to remove Google as the iPhone’s default search tool? According to him, the search engine operated by Alphabet (GOOGL.O) enlists Apple (AAPL.O) to answer the query by directing users to its website. Using Google as the default search engine wasn’t Apple’s “choice,” Dintzer said. Follow @BenWinck on XFollow @thereallsl on XCONTEXT NEWSThe U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust case against Alphabet’s Google started on Sept. 12.

Persons: John Schmidtlein, Kenneth Dintzer, Google, ” Schmidtlein, Schmidtlein, ” Dintzer, It’s, Tim Cook, Alphabet’s Google, Ben Winck, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam Organizations: Google, Rights, Reuters, Apple, U.S . Department of, Yahoo, Verizon Communications, Microsoft, Netscape, U.S, U.S . Department, Alphabet’s, Thomson Locations: Cambridge , Massachusetts, U.S, Safari, Japan, Washington, New York

☆ Rising US gas prices are both good news and bad
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Ignore the glowing signs at U.S. gas stations, and the country's inflation fight is going well. The bad news about costlier refueling is also the good news. Transportation costs jumped 2%, but that was likely linked to the price of energy. He said in July that tumbling gas prices weren’t enough to declare victory over inflation, and that the core gauge was still worryingly high. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Ben Winck, BoE, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, X, Treasury, UBS, Warner Bros Discovery, Thomson Locations: Asia

☆ DOJ fights uphill battle; Google a losing one
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The government, in its opening statements, argued that the $1.7 trillion company’s search engine partnerships illegally protected its monopoly, harming consumers. The problem for the DOJ is that consumers readily dole out their data, and not just to Google. Device manufacturers and browser creators choose Google because it’s the highest quality option, and users can easily pick another default search engine, John Schmidtlein, Google’s lead lawyer, argued. The government’s lawyers have their work cut out for them, but a DOJ loss won’t mean a Google victory. The company’s partnerships may set Google as the default search engine on devices and browsers, but users can usually change their default option with a few clicks.

Persons: General Merrick Garland, Jonathan Kanter, Kenneth Dintzer, Dintzer, Amit Mehta, John Schmidtlein, Google’s, DOJ doesn’t, Google's, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: U.S . Justice, Alphabet's Google, Justice Department, Reuters, U.S . Department of Justice, Alphabet’s, Google, DOJ, Microsoft, Court, Big Tech, Alphabet’s Google, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON

☆ Flood insurance swamps US government
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. government’s flood coverage could soon find itself financially underwater. The National Flood Insurance Program, which covers nearly 5 million properties, needs to be reauthorized by Congress by the end of the month to avoid a housing crunch. A FEMA report seen by the Associated Press estimated another 1 million fewer Americans will buy flood insurance by the end of the decade, further starving the program of much-needed funds. The program’s flood fund lost nearly $1.9 billion in fiscal 2022, up from a $236 million loss the year prior. Follow @BenWinck on XCONTEXT NEWSCongressional authorization for the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program is set to lapse on Sept. 30 if lawmakers don’t approve a new extension.

Persons: Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Evelyn Hockstein, Hurricane Lee, Lee, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Flood Insurance, National Association of Realtors, FEMA, Associated Press, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Association, U.S, National Flood Insurance, Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Hurricane Center, Thomson Locations: Oak, Florida, U.S, United States, Singapore, East Coast

☆ Fewer US temp jobs may flag longer lasting concern
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Sept 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A steady drop in the temporary worker employment is a concerning blight in an otherwise steady U.S. labor market. Companies that recruit and place temps tend to cut payrolls when the first signs of an economic slowdown emerge. The crest, at 3.2 million, occurred 17 months ago, in March 2022, signaling that weakness could be ahead. Although the jobless rate reached 3.8% in August, its highest since early 2022, there are few other glaring employment concerns. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Ben Winck, Pernod Ricard, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Companies, X, Thomson

☆ Thriving US makes Dollar General a tougher sell
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. economy’s gain is shaping up to be Dollar General’s (DG.N) loss. Dollar General sales grew a record 16.3% when Covid-19 slammed the U.S. in 2020, but rose only 2.5% when the economy reopened in 2021. During the recession years of 2008 and 2009, sales grew 9% and 9.5%, respectively. Dollar General now reckons earnings in the year to January 2024 could fall as much as 34%, compared to a previous estimate of a drop of up to 8%. Dollar General’s valuation is still far from discounted.

Persons: Jeff Owen, Ben Winck, Pernod Ricard, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Atlanta Federal, X, Microsoft, Thomson

☆ With housing, Buffett chooses a great location
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mortgages are pricey, but Warren Buffett seems to think that’s a good thing for homebuilders. Horton (DHI.N), Lennar (LEN.N) and NVR (NVR.N), just as mortgage rates hit the highest level in nearly 23 years. That’s 3% less than last year, and 7% less than the average used-home price today. Horton, NVR and Lennar on Aug. 14. The conglomerate, run by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, purchased $726 million, $71 million and $17 million of DR Horton, NVR and Lennar shares, respectively, throughout the second quarter, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, D.R . Horton, Horton, NVR, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Buffett, Berkshire, Securities and Exchange Commission, Mortgage Bankers Association, Census, Thomson Locations: . Berkshire, D.R ., Horton, U.S, New York, Los Angeles, Berkshire, that’s, homebuilders D.R, DR

☆ Republican hopefuls’ deficit goals are all talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Participants in the party’s first debate for the 2024 election on Wednesday night promised to shrink the government’s budget shortfall. Yet Republicans have a bad track record for cutting federal debt, and some candidates are already touting pricey projects and tax cuts. The last Republican president to run a budget surplus was George W. Bush in 2001, but even that year was partly influenced by the cost-cutting measures put in place by his Democratic predecessor. With Congress balking at such a combinations, Republican candidates’ plans are all talk, little hope of action. That budget deficit is 122% larger than the shortfall seen in the same period last year.

Persons: Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, jockeying, “, Donald Trump, George W, Bush, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Arkansas, New, U.S, South Carolina, North Dakota, Republican, Reuters, Republicans, South, Democratic, U.S . Office, Management, Former New, Congressional, Cato Institute, Fitch, Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: New Jersey, Florida, U.S, WASHINGTON, Milwaukee , Wisconsin, South Carolina, Former New Jersey, Arkansas, Ukraine, China, The U.S

☆ Bond rout will amplify Powell’s Jackson Hole words
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Aug 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. Federal Reserve might be done hiking rates, but the bond market has only just gotten started. That poses a lofty challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday: calm the Treasury market without undoing the Fed’s own tightening. He can reiterate that, while the Fed keeps an eye on markets, its next policy decision rests on economic data, not ever-shifting bond yields. The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Aug. 24 to Aug. 26.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jonathan Ernst, Freddie Mac, CreditCards.com, Powell, Powell won’t, Christine Lagarde, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam Organizations: Federal, Financial, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, U.S . Federal, Futures, Fed, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Government, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

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